Sit down Robin!
I was watching the video of Mitch Kapor's keynote speech and one thought kept going through my head "Robin Linden sit down!", it was bad enough that she threw her voice through Mitch's avatar during the intro to confuse everyone...but with an accent like that she's forgiven!
The crux of the speech, I'm not sure what circles Mitch moves in but voice sure as hell isn't widespread in my circles. I'm happy as Larry with text, I can multitask that way, plus my microphone is broken anyway. Voice is still a minority sport from where I sit.
Some of it made me a little wary...there's a surprise. Talk of the pioneer age being near an end and increased governance make me worry that your world, your imagination is going to be clipped at the wings.
Second Life is far from being past the pioneer stage, largely because many people still ask "What's the point?". There is no killer app here, there is huge potential, but potential needs to be realised at some point and I'm not quite sure Second Life is near the point where the big bad world will embrace it.
There were some very interesting developments, the camera that moves your avatar as you move your body has been mentioned before, but a price of US$100 was mentioned, I think! If I heard that right that's not a bad deal at all. Then there was the issue of having your avatar look more like you ....I'm not sure this will be quite so popular in consumer circles, in business circles it may be embraced to a degree. Can I have a Saturday morning hangover look?
Second Life of course has to evolve or die but the learning curve is still way too steep. The core problem with the learning curve isn't learning in itself, it's money. People want to buy items, they just don't find the opportunities to earn Linden dollars to do so and many simply won't rush out to use their plastic to participate. The learning curve isn't so much about navigation, it's about interaction and I'm not sure that technological improvements will help the platform in this area.
The bottom line is that people want something to do, they dance and drink and screw cos there's nothing else to do. There are great advances, education loves Second Life, they won't continue to love it if it keeps racing away with technical requirements, but that's a different story for a different day, but education is one strong area for Second Life.
Hotel training, town planning, truck drivers learning how to manoevure have been areas where Second Life is used, but these aren't consumer areas, these are areas where people will run to cheaper alternatives if they become available. Now if those business areas can engage with consumers, then they'll stay, but that's a big if.
There's always been a nagging doubt at the back of my mind that Second Life will be eclipsed, that Philip Linden will be remembered as a pioneer, but ultimately not as the man who changed the world. Second Life needs some niche consumer areas to really hit the heights and they aren't really going to happen for a while yet. People need to be able to use Second Life in ways that are separate from, well Second Life. For example a role playing sim where you role play some game there but are not engaged with the rest of the world directly.
There was also talk of ten thousand US dollars worth of Linden dollars being awarded to the people or business who improve the human condition via Second Life, more details on this will be forthcoming over the next few weeks.
Disruptive technologies replace other technologies, I'm not sure what Second Life will replace. I know a guy who wants to be able to do his grocery shopping via a 3D internet based world (no not me, I still like to check if I'm getting a juicy pear), maybe that's where it's all heading, 3D internet shopping, who knows?
The potential here is massive, but it's still going to take more to conquer the world. Patience is needed in all reality, but in technology patience is in short supply. The requirements now that people want are stability, secure transactions and increased social networking capabilities.
The future is still bright, I just hope that Second Life's board take into account that not everybody is ready to leave the frontier, but change is coming and not all change is bad, after all, video killed the radio star, right?
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Yup, but we have to do it...
"a role playing sim where you role play some game there but are not engaged with the rest of the world directly"
I think you're right - that's absolutely going to be one of the ways forward for SL. But Linden will not (actually legally they CANNOT) build this stuff in SL - WE have to do it. I think there's a future business model for SL right there waiting for someone to move toward it - actually Rezzable are taking steps in this direction. The secret? Pay to play.
It won't be popular with the freetards on the Grid but having pay-to-enter sims with immersive experiences, maybe complete with other role-playing avatars who sustain narratives and encourage you to join in (real employment opportunities!) is potentially one of the ways forward. It's going to take a big shift in SL culture, but it could be huge...and a lot of fun.
Great post.
I think that the little marketing hamsters are working overtime when the reality is that global broadband penetration is really the driving force for further adoption. That broadband penetration would lead to more people using computers in similar contexts, which would lead to the bar being raised. In the interim, there will be lots of people who are simply not ready yet...
Second Life Consultant
Blah
I'm not convinced that LL is ready to embark on this journey into a new era that they're touting through M's little presentation. We can talk all day about cute new avatars and their potential uses in adding new kink to the stale virtual sex lives of the masses.
LL's done a rather poor job of protecting the interests of its pioneering citizens. People who pay thousands in tier but wait, you know, 90 days to have an issue addressed that is costing them additional money unless they're willing to pay 25,000$USD annually for the privilege of proper customer service.
I thought Philip stepped down because 'people didn't want a creative visionary' but someone more business minded. So hokey contests meant to address the creative future is any different?
Right now LL is positioning itself to be the pioneering virtual world that future worlds learn from in terms of what NOT to do.
LL capitalizes off of people that want to capitalize. And I expect when those people get tired of taking that freebie penis in the ass month after month, they'll start looking to the other virtual worlds with exceptions readers of my posts will know, but that I won't mention to stave off the obligatory response that would follow.
Perhaps my post won't be popular. And maybe many people are very excited by M's presentation and all the pretty new distractions it provides. But to me, the stupid newbie that just banters on endlessly about exchanges all day? It's further proof that LLs approach involves more distractions, little follow-through, and a wholly pathetic appreciation of the current issues being faced by the current userbase of SecondLife. Trying to attract newcomers isn't the end all and be all here. Someone needs to grab one of those Lindens during these trite little office hours and make this point painfully clear to them. I wish them luck with that.
I once went to somebody for advice about making the most of the opportunities in Second Life. Their rather useless suggestion was "look to the future." Useless then because it was something of a brush off. I must admit, it did force me to consider the future where SL is concerned. And I'm not fully convinced that the future is in SL anyway. Not if everything is going to begin and end with "let's throw a new feature in and pay out some L$ and vaguely report the number of residents we have to the companies we're pandering to." It's just not cute anymore.
Ah and Ciaran, sorry if this hijacks your thread.
Text and 3D cam
I was disappointed as well that he seems to be so against text chat. My domestic arrangements would not allowe me to use voice - not to mention a 3D camera - to access SL. I don't object voice - I used it a few times and it was great fun - only that those few times were literally the ONLY times my RL situation alllowed me to use it at all.
http://stindberg.blogspot.com