Sit down Robin!
I was watching the video of Mitch Kapor's keynote speech and one thought kept going through my head "Robin Linden sit down!", it was bad enough that she threw her voice through Mitch's avatar during the intro to confuse everyone...but with an accent like that she's forgiven!
The crux of the speech, I'm not sure what circles Mitch moves in but voice sure as hell isn't widespread in my circles. I'm happy as Larry with text, I can multitask that way, plus my microphone is broken anyway. Voice is still a minority sport from where I sit.
Some of it made me a little wary...there's a surprise. Talk of the pioneer age being near an end and increased governance make me worry that your world, your imagination is going to be clipped at the wings.
Second Life is far from being past the pioneer stage, largely because many people still ask "What's the point?". There is no killer app here, there is huge potential, but potential needs to be realised at some point and I'm not quite sure Second Life is near the point where the big bad world will embrace it.
There were some very interesting developments, the camera that moves your avatar as you move your body has been mentioned before, but a price of US$100 was mentioned, I think! If I heard that right that's not a bad deal at all. Then there was the issue of having your avatar look more like you ....I'm not sure this will be quite so popular in consumer circles, in business circles it may be embraced to a degree. Can I have a Saturday morning hangover look?
Second Life of course has to evolve or die but the learning curve is still way too steep. The core problem with the learning curve isn't learning in itself, it's money. People want to buy items, they just don't find the opportunities to earn Linden dollars to do so and many simply won't rush out to use their plastic to participate. The learning curve isn't so much about navigation, it's about interaction and I'm not sure that technological improvements will help the platform in this area.
The bottom line is that people want something to do, they dance and drink and screw cos there's nothing else to do. There are great advances, education loves Second Life, they won't continue to love it if it keeps racing away with technical requirements, but that's a different story for a different day, but education is one strong area for Second Life.
Hotel training, town planning, truck drivers learning how to manoevure have been areas where Second Life is used, but these aren't consumer areas, these are areas where people will run to cheaper alternatives if they become available. Now if those business areas can engage with consumers, then they'll stay, but that's a big if.
There's always been a nagging doubt at the back of my mind that Second Life will be eclipsed, that Philip Linden will be remembered as a pioneer, but ultimately not as the man who changed the world. Second Life needs some niche consumer areas to really hit the heights and they aren't really going to happen for a while yet. People need to be able to use Second Life in ways that are separate from, well Second Life. For example a role playing sim where you role play some game there but are not engaged with the rest of the world directly.
There was also talk of ten thousand US dollars worth of Linden dollars being awarded to the people or business who improve the human condition via Second Life, more details on this will be forthcoming over the next few weeks.
Disruptive technologies replace other technologies, I'm not sure what Second Life will replace. I know a guy who wants to be able to do his grocery shopping via a 3D internet based world (no not me, I still like to check if I'm getting a juicy pear), maybe that's where it's all heading, 3D internet shopping, who knows?
The potential here is massive, but it's still going to take more to conquer the world. Patience is needed in all reality, but in technology patience is in short supply. The requirements now that people want are stability, secure transactions and increased social networking capabilities.
The future is still bright, I just hope that Second Life's board take into account that not everybody is ready to leave the frontier, but change is coming and not all change is bad, after all, video killed the radio star, right?
- Ciaran Laval's blog
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